In an article on soccer analytics, Michael Cox humorously points out that despite the millions spent on data, one of the key takeaways for most pro soccer teams is that shooting closer to the goal significantly increases the chance of scoring.
While data analytics provide insights on player recruitment and tactical consistency, the simplicity of soccer remains: you score more when you shoot from a close range.
However, this becomes challenging against teams that defend deep in a low block. Compacting their formation inside their own half or even within the box. All their players are behind the soccer ball.
Cox: “One veteran of the data industry jokes that football analytics, while a multi-million-pound industry that employs hundreds of people, is essentially about inventing increasingly sophisticated ways to tell everyone to shoot from close to the goal, rather than far away from it.”
Nonetheless, executing this idea, “shooting close to goal”, becomes much more challenging against teams that adopt a defensive, deep-block approach. When teams defend compactly, dropping into their own half or even setting up inside the box, it limits space and shooting opportunities from close to the goal.
It’s fascinating to watch Manchester City, who are always searching for the closest, most high-percentage shot. But sometimes, you just wish they would shoot—especially from long range. As many have pointed out, taking shots from outside the box would certainly open things up closer to goal. But that’s the conundrum in soccer. Manchester City love to reach the end line and cut the ball back, a tactic Barcelona and, now, Inter Miami often use as well.
Yet Jordi Alba and Messi frequently link up with a square ball across the top of the box, leading to goals from that play. It is not too far out from the goal but not super close either. Jordi Alba squares the ball to Messi—watch how they execute this play [here].
Alba often reads the defender well, getting to the end line to cut the ball back to Messi. But sometimes he stops short at the top of the goal box and squares the ball for an onrushing Messi. If those two are doing it, maybe everyone should. So yes, try to shoot close to the goal. But imitate Alba and Messi in squaring the ball a bit further away from goal if you can!
It’s all about balance, though. You need to score goals from outside the box to pull teams out when they’ve parked the bus, as Mourinho would do.
Cristiano Ronaldo, for instance, isn’t afraid to take long-range shots. Maybe too often some might say. But defenders have to come out and defend him.
I wonder if younger players are learning to shoot from distance these days? One player is. Take, for example, Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal. He loves to bend the ball around defenders into the upper corner from outside the box. This skill allows him to bypass defenders who expect a whipped shot at an angle. Now, since defenders know he can score from distance, he can get down the line to cross or cut the ball back.
If you look at Manchester City’s recent matches, particularly against Inter Milan, you’ll notice that most of their shots come from within the box, with only four or five attempts from outside. It makes you wonder what Pep Guardiola thinks of all this. He wants his team to shoot from close range but what if there’s no space? Guardiola says Rodri is the “best midfielder in the world by far.” Rodri is one of the rare players on Manchester City who score from long range strikes. This helps open up the defensive low block when he’s playing.
Against Inter Milan, Rodri took a long range strike with his left foot in the 86th minute, but it went wide. It’s hard to score in soccer, from close or far. But that’s why it’s fun to watch and try to figure out if you’re a soccer coach.
